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Economic_forecasting 

Commentators and observers of stock market activity love to talk about the vix, or volatility index.

They point to the level and trend of the vix as an indicator of future stock market direction.

When an analyst has nothing more compelling to talk about it is time to turn the channel.

The vix is a lagging indicator and not a forecasting indicator.  The vix rises in a down market and falls as the market moves up.  Obviously more sensitive in bear markets than bull markets. 

At extreme levels 18.64 on 08/22/08, or 89.53 on 10/24/08, a bet could have been made for a change in direction, but in the middle of it's range, don't look to the vix for a solid idea of future market movement. 

 

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